During the current period (March to May 2025), the Trinational Border Region of the Río Lempa is experiencing a moderate but sustained decline in acute food security, primarily driven by climatic variability, high food prices, and low food reserves. An estimated 100,000 people (16 percent of the analysed population) are classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse), requiring urgent action to safeguard livelihoods and address food consumption gaps. This includes approximately 97,000 people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 3,000 in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). The Ch’orti’ micro-region is the most severely affected, with 25 percent of its population in Phase 3 or higher, while Ocotepeque, Cayaguanca and Güija remain in Phase 2 (Stressed), despite hosting a significant population in Crisis. Food access and availability are constrained by crop losses caused by prolonged droughts, erratic rainfall, and pest outbreaks, and are further exacerbated by the increasing cost of basic food items.

During the first projection period (June to September 2025) indicates a further deterioration during the seasonal hunger period, with 139,000 people (23 percent) projected to be in Phase 3 or above, including 15,000 in Phase 4 (Emergency). The Ch’orti’ region is expected to remain severely affected, with one in three people in Crisis or worse. This decline is largely attributed to the depletion of 70 percent of staple grain reserves, rising market prices, and reduced employment opportunities in the agricultural sector.

From October 2025 to February 2026, a slight improvement is anticipated, supported by seasonal labour demand, grain harvests, and remittances. Nevertheless, around 69,000 people (11 percent) will remain in Phase 3 or above, highlighting persistent vulnerabilities, especially in Ch’orti’, which is expected to maintain Phase 3 classification for 20 percent of its population.