Highlights

This report provides a retrospective analysis of the effect of the drought on population mortality in 2022 and offers forecasts based on different scenarios for the first 6 months of 2023.

The estimates suggest that in 2022 alone, this drought crisis caused 43 000 excess deaths, with half of these deaths occurring in children younger than 5 years. This figure is higher than that in the first year of the 2017–2018 drought crisis, where the death toll was estimated at 31 400 deaths over the first 12 months of this crisis period.

These figures are derived from a statistical model which estimated that the crude death rate increased across Somalia from 0.33 to 0.38 deaths per 10 000 person-days over the period January–December 2022; the rate in children younger than 5 years was nearly double these levels.

For 2023, the crude death rate is forecasted to reach 0.43 deaths per 10 000 person-days by June 2023, and an additional 135 people are projected to die each day due to the current crisis, with a cumulative projection of 18 100 to 34 200 drought-related deaths for the first 6 months of 2023.

With these estimates, the report suggests that the current crisis is far from over and is likely to be more severe than the 2017–2018 drought. It highlights the need for a sustained multisectoral humanitarian response to reduce preventable deaths, particularly among the most vulnerable groups.