Highlights:

We find ourselves amidst an era marked by an unprecedented polycrisis, where our agrifood systems grapple with intricate challenges that demand immediate attention. In the face of this complexity, technology and innovation emerge as powerful tools, capable of hastening the transformation towards agrifood systems that are not only resilient but also sustainable and inclusive.

A critical aspect of this transformation lies in bridging the gap between the inception of a technology or innovation and its practical application. Success in this endeavor hinges on the creation of an environment conducive to maximizing benefits and minimizing challenges posed by potentially disruptive technologies. This report, employing foresight methodologies such as horizon scanning, scenario building, and strategic foresight, aims to address the knowledge gap surrounding emerging agrifood technologies and innovations across different time horizons—ranging from 2030 to 2050 and beyond.

A clarion call to action, the report urges the improvement and repurposing of research and development programmes, policies, and investments within the realm of agrifood science, technology, and innovation. Beyond the confines of agrifood, the exploration extends to broader  technological arenas, encompassing quantum physics, energy, materials, policy, market dynamics, and social innovations.

In chapter 1, we present the rationale, goals and methodology of the foresight on emerging technologies and innovations. 167 emerging agrifood technologies and innovations have been identified so far and a typology has been proposed.

Chapter 2 undertakes a comprehensive horizon scan of 32 the most promising ones, categorizing them based on impact, timeline, and place of application. These 32 technologies and innovations, spread across all components of agrifood systems, have been further analysed through collective intelligence for their perceived potential to address multiple and single agrifood challenges and their horizon of emergence.

Furthermore, 20 were singled out for special attention by decision-makers and a broader multistakeholder community. One of the salient insights from this section is that the innovations centered around policy, nature-based solutions and data-driven technologies seem to be the most impactful and are expected to be adopted sooner.

Regional analyses underscore the imperative of global collaboration to ensure the equitable distribution of benefits across diverse parts of the world.

The foresight on emerging technologies and innovations in agrifood systems is intended to inform long-term policy making and investments in science, technology and innovation (STI) while building multistakeholder consensus with the ultimate goal of accelerating the transformation of agrifood systems towards more sustainable, resilient and inclusive patterns. Delving into strategic foresight in Chapter 3, the report prioritizes the 18 drivers of agrifood systems and dissects internal trends within technology and innovation. It identifies potential low-probability, high-impact events (wildcards) and triggers for change that could influence the emergence of agrifood technologies. Expert consultation and collective intelligence sessions result in the development of five future scenarios, offering nuanced and plausible visions of the future. These scenarios, including struggling between technological illusions and sustainability, mess and muddle in technologies and innovations, sustainable prosperity, artificial intelligence in charge, and technologies as our best-last chance, guide actions toward desirable futures while avoiding non-desirable outcomes.

The lessons drawn from this foresight exercise underscore the pivotal role of governance, partnerships, ethical considerations, and the engagement of stakeholders in shaping a desirable future. Lastly, chapter 4 presents final considerations for strategic planning and recommendations, emphasizing that the solution lies not solely in technology but also in policy, social, and financial innovations that facilitate access to science, technology, and innovation (STI). The report emphasizes that no singular technology or innovation serves as a "silver bullet." Instead, the emphasis is on having a myriad of options at hand and combining them judiciously, in partnership with diverse stakeholders, to effect transformative change and create impact where it is most needed.

Recognizing that different pathways of change, whether incremental or disruptive, will coexist, the report notes that disruptive technologies necessitate longer emergence times due to changes required in infrastructure, investments, human and social capital, policy environments, and mindsets. The more disruptive the technology, the greater the uncertainty it brings. Hence, in the short term, there is a call to focus on ex-ante risk-benefit assessment frameworks to fully leverage the potential of disruptive technologies. A systemic, co-creative, and anticipatory approach is advocated to decrease the time lag between research and investment phases, ensuring that technologies remain relevant when applied. The report stresses the need for an inclusive feedback mechanism, enabling technologies and innovations to evolve alongside users' needs and the dynamic context of agrifood systems. Through such holistic and collaborative efforts, the report envisions a future where technology, innovation, and policy seamlessly converge to address the multifaceted challenges of agrifood systems, steering them towards sustainability, resilience, and inclusivity.

Top 20 most promising agrifood emerging technologies and innovations