Key messages:

• Emerging economies have increasingly driven global agricultural and fisheries market developments over the last 20 years and are expected to continue to do so over the next decade.

• The role of the People’s Republic of China in driving global food and agricultural consumption is waning, whilst India and Southeast Asia are expected to gain influence, driven by their growing urban populations and increasing affluence.

• Calorie intake is expected to increase by 7% in middle-income countries, largely due to greater consumption of staples, livestock products and fats. Calorie intake in low-income countries will grow at 4%, too slowly to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal target of zero hunger by 2030 (SDG2).

• Agriculture’s global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity is expected to decline, as growth will be based on productivity improvements rather than cultivated land and livestock herd expansions, although direct emissions from agriculture will still increase by 5%.

• Halving food loss and waste has the potential to reduce global agricultural GHG emissions by 4% and the number of undernourished people by 153 million by the year 2030.

• Well-functioning international agricultural commodity markets will remain important for global food security, as 20% of calories are traded and rural livelihoods can benefit from participation in markets and global agrifood value chains.

• A slight fall in real international reference prices for main agricultural commodities is projected over the next ten years but this may not be reflected in local retail food prices.