Skip to main content
Knowledge4Policy
Knowledge for policy

Supporting policy with scientific evidence

We mobilise people and resources to create, curate, make sense of and use knowledge to inform policymaking across Europe.

  • Publication | 2025

Trepidation day: Reciprocal tariffs and the vulnerability of US agriculture

Global Food and Nutrition Security

Key Points:

  • On April 2, 2025, the Trump administration announced new “reciprocal tariffs” on imports from most trading partners, imposing a baseline 10 percent tariff on all countries, with higher rates for those with which the US has the largest trade deficits.
  • Nearly half (47 percent) of US agricultural exports in 2024 went to countries now facing reciprocal tariffs greater than 10 percent, making the agricultural sector particularly vulnerable to counterretaliation.
  • If trading partners retaliate as they did during the 2018–19 trade war, US farmers could face short-term losses (which may be compensated through government programs) and long-term market disruptions as importers shift to alternative suppliers.
  • The long-term consequences of trade wars on US agriculture remain concerning, as shown by how China permanently shifted soybean imports from the US to Brazil following the previous trade war, despite temporary government assistance to affected farmers.