Timor-Leste is confronted by a worsening food security situation that demands urgent attention and action. In the current period of analysis (November 2023 – April 2024), corresponding to the lean season as well as a window of high-impact for El Niño, 27 percent of the total population (about 360,000 people) are estimated to be facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), which includes 1 percent (about 19,000 people) classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), and 26 percent (about 342,000 people) in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Urgent action is required to protect livelihoods, reduce food consumption gaps, and minimize the use of food-based and livelihood coping strategies for the 27 percent of the population in IPC Phase 3 and above. The main drivers of acute food insecurity are the drought-like conditions caused by El Niño, landslides and floods caused by heavy rains, and unaffordability of food exacerbated by poverty and steadily increasing prices of food.

During the projected period of analysis (May – September 2024), when the post-harvest season typically improves food security, a deterioration of food security is anticipated due to lower-than average rainfall received in the current period, as well as the highest inflation rates recorded in December 2023 (34 percent increase compared to December 2022) in the last ten years. Nation-wide food insecurity deepens, as there is a steady increase in the adoption of negative coping strategies, compounded by pre-existing poverty, successive climate shocks, and an expected reduction in agricultural production. In the projected period, it is estimated that 27 percent of the total population (about 364,000 people) will be facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 and above), with 2 percent  (about 22,000 people) of the population analysed classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), and 25 percent (about 342,000 people) classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). The main factors contributing to this deterioration are the negative impacts of drought-like conditions which are expected to offset the positive effects of harvesting period in 2024; limiting food availability, agriculture-related employment opportunities, and household food reserves. The deterioration estimated in the projected period will depend on the impact of climatic shocks such as El Niño and La Niña weather events, as well as the rainfall received in different municipalities and the amount of water which reaches individual households. Moreover, access to food will continue to be an issue as prices overall have risen significantly compared to pre-pandemic levels due to supply chain disruptions, increased fuel prices, and the global reduction in rice harvest, among other factors.