Highlights

The IMPACT model was used to evaluate impacts of climate change on aggregate food production, food consumption (kcal per person per day), net trade of major food commodity groups, and the population at risk of hunger.

The baseline projections indicate that global food production will grow by about 60 percent over 2010 levels by 2050 in the context of climate change — 8 percentage points less than would be the case without climate change.

Production and demand are projected to grow more rapidly in developing countries, particularly in Africa, than in developed countries, due to projected growth in population and incomes.

However, the long-term impacts of COVID-19 and other current geopolitical factors have not yet been incorporated in these projections. Diets are also shifting toward higher-value foods, including more fruits and vegetables, processed foods, and animal-source foods, outside of high-income countries. Meat production is projected to double in South Asia and West and Central Africa by 2030 and triple by 2050.

Despite this growth, per capita consumption levels in developing countries will remain less than half of those in developed countries. The demand for processed foods also shows up in the growing production of oil crops; by 2050 production is expected to more than double in Southeast Asia and West and Central Africa. Production of fruit and vegetables is projected to more than double in most regions (Central and West Asia and North Africa; East and Southern Africa; and West and Central Africa) by 2050. By the same year, average dietary energy consumption is projected to increase by about 10 percent globally to more than 3,000 kcal per capita per day.

However, regional differences in access to food mean that nearly 500 million people are projected to remain at risk of hunger. Globally, about 70 million more people will be at risk of hunger because of climate change, including more than 28 million in East and Southern Africa.