In the current period (October 2023 – January 2024), nearly 459,000 children under five are facing/expected to face elevated levels of acute malnutrition.  This includes 263,000 cases in Grand Sud and 196,000 cases in Grand Sud-Est.

During the lean period from February to April 2024 (first projection period), the most isolated districts, Nosy Varika and Ikongo are projected to move to IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical). In the second projection period (May to September 2024), only the Betroka District of Grand Sud is projected to return to IPC AMN Phase 2 (Alert). The districts of Betioky and Ampanihy (Atsimo Andrefana), the four districts of the Androy Region, as well as Amboasary District in Anosy Region will remain in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious).

Determining factors of acute malnutrition are low diversity and quantity of food consumption of children, high prevalence of childhood illnesses – particularly malaria – low health services and low rates of coverage of vaccination or vitamin A supplementation.