Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has been since February 2022 undermining the latter’s capacity to harvest and export crops. A reduction in export capacity from Ukraine and Russia, and rising energy and fertiliser prices are pushing up international food prices, thereby threatening global food security. Findings presented in this brief suggest that the full loss of Ukraine’s capacity to export together with a 50% reduction in Russian wheat export could lead to a 34% increase in international wheat prices in the marketing year 2022/23.