Highlights:

Chapter 3.7 focuses on making agriculture more productive and resilient.

The modelling shows that climate change impacts on crop yield will vary by crop and region, and that not all impacts are negative. Table 3.1 shows the impacts on crop yields for six major Ethiopian crops and for different climate scenarios. Barley, teff, maize, and wheat yields are negatively affected in a dry/hot scenario. Teff is the only crop that decreases in a wet/warm scenario while all other crops increase in yield. Impacts also vary by region. Figure 3.4 shows yield changes for teff between 2001– 2020 to 2041–2060 under the average hot and dry climate models. Yields do not decline uniformly across the country; some regions in the highlands benefit from the impacts of climate change while the lowlands are negatively affected.

Overall impact of climate change on total crop production is not significant and is outweighed by the impacts of agricultural transformation programs, limiting the need for large adaptation investments. Climate change results in limited, generally positive effects on total production, with overall gains by the 2040s of 3 percent per year. However, climate impacts by crop vary: for example, teff (15 percent production) drops by 4 percent under CG due to climate change.

Climate change impacts on livestock production are more pronounced and highlight the need for adaptation investments.

Climate effects on both crops and livestock are also more pronounced in the lowlands compared to the highlands.

Examples of how Ethiopia could do things differently include:

• Setting priorities for agricultural research and development based on forecasting of how climate stressors will affect different crop varieties and livestock breeds now and in future

• Reforms to enable sustainable management and governance of irrigation schemes and to facilitate efficient utilization of water resources

• Transitioning to a pluralistic, demand-driven agricultural extension and advisory system, including digital technologies

• Reducing food trade barriers, especially in times of crisis

• Promoting climate smart agriculture.

Chapter 4.1 focuses on poverty impacts of climate change and chapter 4.3 on supporting the most vulnerable.

Chapter 5 focuses on priority policy actions and investments for the short (less than 3 years) and medium term (3-5 years).

Priority 1 is related to accelerating implementation of structural reforms and promote social safety net programs

Priority 2 is related to investing in climate resilient infrastructure.

Priority 3 is related to supporting greater decentralization of climate response.