The IPC Acute Malnutrition analysis carried out on 43 analysis units, including 15 provinces, 27 departments and the city of N'Djaména, shows that almost 1,746,000 children aged between 6 and 59 months will suffer from acute malnutrition over the period from October 2023 to September 2024, i.e. 5 percent fewer than over the same period last year (just under 1,775,500 children identified as suffering from acute malnutrition over this period). The number of cases of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) expected between October 2023 and September 2024 is almost 480,000 children (compared with 415,000 last year between October 2022 and September 2023, i.e. around 15 percent more). For pregnant and breast-feeding women suffering from acute malnutrition, the estimate is over 261,000 (down from 273,500 last year, a variation of 5 percent).

During the current period from October to December 2023 (considered to be a low malnutrition period), 16 analysis units, all in the south of the country, are classified as being in an Acceptable situation (Phase 1 of the IPC MNA), while eight are in an Alert situation (Phase 2 of the IPC MNA) in the central part of the country, 13 analysis units are classified as being in a Serious situation (Phase 3 of the NAM IPC), mainly in the Sahelian band, and six are identified as being in a Critical situation (Phase 4 of the NAM IPC), concentrated in Borkou-Ennedi-Tibesti (BET). During projection period 1, from January to May 2024, there was a marked deterioration in the situation, with an increase in cases of acute malnutrition. The 16 analysis units in phase 1 in the current situation show a similar classification over the first projection. Over the same period, five units were classified as Alert, 14 as Serious (Phase 3 of the MNA IPC) and eight as Critical (Phase 4 of the MNA IPC), with a deterioration in the situation in the eastern areas of the country bordering Sudan. During projected period 2, from June to September 2024 (peak of malnutrition), the situation will be the most deteriorated of the three analysis periods, reflecting the seasonal nature of acute malnutrition in Chad. No unit will improve and no zone will be classified in Phase 1 of the IPC MNA over this period. On the other hand, there will be a marked deterioration in 24 units, which will move into a higher IPC MNA phase, including 16 analysis units in an Alert situation (IPC Phase 2), 4 analysis units in a Serious situation (IPC Phase 3) and 6 analysis units in a Critical situation (IPC Phase 4). The Tibesti, the Central part and 14 analysis units are also likely to be in a Critical situation (IPC Phase 4) over this period.