Major demographic transitions are occurring across all world regions, at different paces and with different implications. Important trends are already visible and others are very likely to occur in the coming decades.

A new JRC policy brief unpacks the relationships between global population growth, development, urbanisation, climate, economics and democracy.

It highlights that population dynamics at the global level are slow-moving. The global population is very likely to continue to grow over the short and medium term of the next 30 to 40 years.

However, long-term projections on the global demographic future start diverging considerably over the second half of the 21st century.

Countries continue to span a wide variety of demographic scenarios from population decline and ageing societies to rapid population growth and the demographic window of opportunity.

Most of future population growth will come from sub-Saharan Africa, which is projected to continue to grow throughout the 21st century and triple or quadruple in size.

Ageing in high-income countries brings with it challenges related to retirement systems, the provision of social security, and the care and support for the older population within the intergenerational contract.

Migration unlikely to offset population decline

International migration is becoming a more sizeable demographic factor that attenuates population decline in low-fertility countries.

Disparate population growth is likely to increase the relative importance of migration as a driver of population in low-fertility countries, which are also opening up to address shrinking workforces and labour shortages.

However, international migration is unlikely to offset population decline in low-fertility countries.

Urbanisation processes are slowing down

Urbanisation processes are slowing down globally with reduced population growth rates. Yet, most of the increase in global population will be accounted for by urban areas.

A major driver of this process is natural growth (the difference between births and deaths) in urban areas of low-income and lower-middle income countries with lesser contributions from internal migration and the transformation of rural areas to urban areas.

Population lesser contributor to global emissions than wealth

A major challenge to achieve a sustainable future of human activity is to compensate economic growth, urbanisation and development in emerging economies with a reduction in energy intensity and emission intensity.

Population is a lesser contributor to global emissions than wealth.

Therefore, affluent regions need to intensify their efforts in greening their economies and in adopting sustainable consumption patterns.

Read more