Viet Nam 2045—Growing Greener: Pathways to a Resilient and Sustainable Future

Viet Nam is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change, ranked 13th globally for climate risk during 2000-19 by Germanwatch. The climate crisis is already threatening key economic sectors, such as agriculture and transport, along with major urban and industrial hubs.

The cost of inaction is high. Macroeconomic models suggest that climate impacts could reduce national output by 9.1 percent from the baseline by 2030 and 12.5 percent by 2050, while also increasing inequality and slowing poverty reduction. Without adaptation measures, inaction  could lead to an average annual loss of 0.33 percentage points in real GDP growth during the 2025-2050, potentially preventing Viet Nam from achieving its goal of becoming a high-income economy by 2045.

The report, Viet Nam 2045—Growing Greener: Pathways to a Resilient and Sustainable Future, highlights how investments in adaptation can help limit the impact of climate shocks on Vietnamese farms, businesses, and factories.

Projections suggest that a sea level rise of 75–100 centimeters could inundate nearly half the Mekong Delta by midcentury.

A 2024 World Bank survey found that about three-quarters of manufacturers in apparel and electronics—two of Viet Nam’s leading export sectors—operate in areas facing significant heat stress, putting more than 1.3 million workers at risk.

In the absence of adaptive actions, climate impacts could reduce Viet Nam’s economic output by as much as 12.5 percent by 2050 compared with baseline projections, potentially undermining the country’s ambition to reach high-income status by 2045.

The report makes the case for leveraging Viet Nam’s marine economy to drive a greener, more resilient future. About 30 percent of the population lives along the 3,260-km coastline, and nearly half of Viet Nam’s 100 million people depend directly on its rich marine ecosystems for their livelihoods. The marine economy is particularly vulnerable to climate risks, making adaptation both urgent and highly beneficial. At the same time, the sector holds significant potential to support Viet Nam’s climate mitigation efforts.

To mitigate risks and realize the marine economy’s potential, Viet Nam should establish marine protected areas, enforce sustainable fishing practices, and restore mangroves to strengthen coastal resilience and carbon sequestration. Engaging local communities through education and sustainable livelihoods will foster stewardship of marine resources. Integrating ecosystem health into economic planning is essential to balance growth with sustainability and preserve ocean resources for future generations.

A second report, Viet Nam 2045—Breaking Through: Institutions for a High-Income Future argues that Viet Nam needs to strengthen the legal and regulatory environment and streamline public investment to sustain the rapid growth required to meet its target. It notes that countries that have escaped the middle-income trap and reached high-income status have done so by continuously improving the quality of their institutions.