This paper discusses the possibility that today’s food price crisis, in the absence of urgent action, might turn into a fully-blown hunger crisis in many parts of the world, creating a situation only comparable with the 1970s during which millions of people starved. The paper purposefully examines a highly plausible scenario that is based on a specific assumption: high prices for fertilizers and a possible scarcity of inputs, which might lead to a situation where the current food price crisis will turn into a crisis of availability of food.

The paper states that the most pressing immediate issue is to undertake a deeper assessment of how mineral fertilizer application shortfalls will threaten food security, which could bring about high mortality and civil unrest in the years ahead.