Despite regional instability and global inflation, Tajikistan had strong economic growth and record-low inflation in 2022. Economic activity was bolstered by remittances flows and expanded services and industrial production. Real GDP expanded by 8% in 2022, following the recovery of 2021.

Tajikistan's prudent monetary policy and appreciation of the exchange rate have enabled the country to attain the lowest inflation rate in the region. By end-2022, consumer price inflation had dropped to a mere 4.2%, and the trend continued well into the first half of 2023. Despite rising consumer imports, the external position remained strong thanks to migrant transfers and foreign investments. International reserves sharply increased and now cover more than nine months of imports.

However, challenges remain. The financial industry is struggling with bad loans, overreliance on the US dollar, and risky investments in state-owned enterprises. Small businesses face difficulties in obtaining financing due to limited options and strict collateral requirements. While external grants helped offset revenue loss from the adoption of the new tax code, the authorities maintained fiscal discipline by containing capital expenditures. While the public debt burden substantially eased, Tajikistan remains at high risk of debt distress. In 2022, vulnerable households relied heavily on labor migration as a significant source of income, contributing to a decline in the poverty rate to 13.4% under the international poverty line of $3.65 (2017 PPP). Social assistance reform has been aiming to ensure fairness and identify better vulnerable households.