Adverse weather conditions since the start of the 2021 – 2022 season have led to a poor yield outlook for winter crops in central and western Ukraine. Fair yields are expected in the east of the country. At country level, our yield forecast is below the historical trend and well below last year’s record level.

In terms of production, this translates to a forecast of 26.88 Mt of wheat, 6.66 Mt of barley, and 3.75Mt of rapeseed. About 22% of the forecast soft wheat production, 19% of the forecast winter barley, and 13% of the forecast rapeseed production is in areas that are currently subject to hostilities due to Russia’s war on Ukraine. Hostilities have also led to a sharp decrease in the area sown to spring and summer crops, which will lead to a lower production of spring barley, grain maize, sunflowers and soybeans.

This issue of the Bulletin contains several novel elements, such as yield and production forecast at oblast level, and an appendix on an analysis using Copernicus Sentinel data to estimate crop area and crop phenology.