Escalating conflict in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo has exacerbated the food crisis, leaving an estimated 27.7 million Congolese (24 percent of the analysed population) facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between January and June 2025. This includes approximately 3.9 million in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and over 23.8 million in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

In this projection update, the situation deteriorated in the four provinces of North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, and Tanganyika, with more than 10.3 million people facing Phase 3 or above, including 7.9 million people in Phase 3 and 2.3 million in Phase 4.

There were 14 Internally Displaced Population (IDP) sites analysed in this projection update – a decrease from the 20 that were analysed in September 2024. This is a result of the forced closure of six IDP sites in Goma and in the territories of Nyiragongo, Masisi, and Rutshuru (North Kivu), as well as in the territories of Kalehe and Uvira (South Kivu) in February 2025 due to intensified conflict. All IDP sites in North Kivu, particularly in the Goma region, are now completely empty. In early February 2025 (following an upsurge in conflict), 32 percent of displaced people were still living in camps. Return movements intensified in February, with nearly half of displaced people returning to their villages of origin, compared to only 11 percent during the first projection analysis.

Of the 3.7 million IDPs analysed, more than 2.2 million are facing Phase 3 or above with over 738,000 in Phase 4. According to the January 2025 Population Movement Commission (CMP) database, the DRC has more than 7.8 million displaced people, most of whom live with host families. This population group is primarily located in the eastern part of the country.