Highlights:

Section 3.1.1. focuses on the climate vulnerability of integrated water and agricultural systems.

Agriculture sector resilience requires expanded and more efficient irrigation. Modeling shows that expanding irrigation and increasing its efficiency could result in the highest gains of all possible adaptation interventions. These gains would roughly offset climate impacts under a Wet/Warm scenario.

Other interventions with significant potential, include: i) building agroclimatic zoning information for key value chains; ii) identifying suitable technological packages and providing farmers with training and technical assistance; iii) facilitating access to credit for the upfront costs of investment; and iv) establishing cost‑effective monitoring, reporting and verification of impacts (MRV). Measures such as the use of heat‑tolerant crop varieties and crop switching have smaller and more localized benefits.

Figure 13 shows the effects on crop production when adaptation interventions are employed. Overall, these interventions are expected to have positive impacts on most crops, but, crops such as beans coconuts, and bananas are not protected from shocks. Promoting an integrated territorial and landscape approach to agricultural infrastructure investments could also help improve agriculture resilience amid extreme events and other climate impacts.

Agriculture and water use will also be impacted by the increasing demand for water by tourism, reinforcing the need to promote water efficiency and conservation to increase the sector's resilience.

Table 3 below proposes sequencing of actions within categories and subcategories (extract on agriculture) based on the urgency rating, which also reflects that some recommendations are a prerequisite for subsequent activities.