Historically Ethiopia's food security has been sensitive to climatic variability, but changes in future weather and climate could lead to overall reductions and increased variability in agricultural production, without further adaptation. We present an integrated modelling assessment framework which combines climate, crop, and hydrological modelling to quantify future risks to Ethiopia's food security. We explore the impacts of 2°C and higher climate change scenarios on water availability and crop yields and simulate how future climate shocks may impact Ethiopia's food. We consider three adaptations to agricultural management practices (improved seed varieties, increased use of nitrogen fertilizer and supplementary irrigation) and quantify their effectiveness in enhancing the resilience of Ethiopia's food system to climate and hydrological change by 2050. Results show that, without policy intervention, climate change creates a risk of declining Meher season crop yields across Ethiopia. Under the worst climate change scenario, teff (−12.0%), barley (−6.7%), and wheat (−4.4%) are projected to have the largest decline in average yields, whilst maize (−0.1%) and sorghum (+0.9%) yields are less impacted thanks to more favourable growing conditions. However, the results also indicate that the adaptation options have a bigger beneficial effect than the climate impact. Of the policies evaluated, improved seeds have a relatively greater effect than increased fertilizer use. Supplementary irrigation could help to mitigate increases in crop water requirements under warmer climate conditions and is most effective in drought prone basins and for drought-vulnerable crops. Overall, the results show that locally relevant agricultural policies are necessary to build Ethiopia's food system resilience to climate and hydrological change by the mid-century.
A blessing or a curse? Climate change and political economy effects on the agricultural sector: empirical evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa
Purpose This study aims to investigate how climate change and political economy factors interact to influence agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It aims to determine...
The nexus between food security, health outcomes, and climate change: a multisectoral approach to sustainable development in Africa
Background In Africa, where climatic unpredictability exacerbates food shortages and raises health risks, food security and climate change are crucial determinants influencing health...
Trade-Offs Among SDGs: How the Pursuit of Economic, Food, and Urban Development Goals May Undermine Climate and Equity Targets?
The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide a comprehensive framework for addressing global challenges; however, their implementation reveals critical tensions between development...