Key highlights

• Headline inflation in September 2022 jumped to 6.9% from 6.3% in August, registering a 57% increase compared with the January 2022 rate and the highest since October 2018 (PSA, Sep 2022).

• The average monthly price of a liter of gasoline registered a 7% net decrease based on year-to-date data while a liter of diesel and kerosene recorded net increases of 53% and 55% respectively (Department of Energy, 27 Sep 2022).

• The monthly average price of a 50-kg sack of fertilizer remains about 21% higher compared to the start of the year (Department of Agriculture, Sep 2022).

• Mixed retail prices continued to be observed in the National Capital Region (NCR) markets for most commodities (Philippine Statistics Authority, Sep 2022). Average prices of rice, pork, ampalaya, tomato, mango and banana increased while retail prices of brown sugar, fresh eggs, dressed chicken, cooking oil, fresh fish, carrots, cabbage and calamansi declined.

• In September, the cost of a typical food basket increased by 3 percent compared to the previous month. However, it is significantly higher than February 2022 costs, putting a strain on household purchasing power.

• Market characteristics: Half of the traders (50%) interviewed in the survey areas reported that the prices of key commodities sold in September remained the same compared to the previous month. However, 50% of the traders reported that customers continued buying less goods than usual and 25% mentioned that customers bought cheaper or less preferred goods in response to the surge in prices of goods since the beginning of the year.

• Climate change induced hazards, including tropical cyclone activity and heavy rainfalls, may continue to impact the pre-existing financial and macro-economic vulnerabilities. WFP Asia and the Pacific Seasonal Monitor forecasts that the rainfall from October to December 2022 is likely to be above the normal conditions (>60% possibility of exceeding the median rainfall) in the country.