Main Highlights:

• Normal food and fuel imports: Despite the escalation started in November, the analysis up until January 2024 show that there is an increase in imports of fuel, wheat, and other food items. As Yemen relies heavily on imports for its food requirements, with around 90 percent of its staple cereals being imported, we are projecting the current crisis to disrupt or block the movement of goods, leading to food shortages in the markets at least in the short-term (from March/ April).
• Stable food and fuel prices: in line with the stability in the global food and fuel prices, corresponding prices in Yemen stabilized in January 2024 compared to the Dec 2023. However, this is unlikely to remain for the foreseeable future. If the crisis continues, it will accelerate the already increased shipping costs, occasion further delivery delays, or even to a complete suspension of trade routes and closure Yemeni Ports. This disruption can result in scarcity of food supplies and a subsequent increase in prices. As a result, the vulnerable population, including the poor and internally displaced, will struggle to afford essential food items.
• Deterioration of infrastructure: Increased military activities in the Red Sea carries the risk of destruction of critical infrastructure, including ports and storage facilities. This can hamper the efficient distribution and storage of food in Yemen, further worsening food insecurity.
• Disruption of livelihoods and others in the value chain, including for fishermen: The escalation of the crisis may force Yemeni fishermen to abandon their activities due to increased insecurity at sea and at landing sites. This will not only negatively impact their income, but also affect the availability of fish in the markets, reducing a vital source of protein for the population.
• Continued decline in humanitarian assistance while food insecurity expected to escalate: As the resources coming to Yemen has dwindled significantly, huge disagreements in reaching out to beneficiaries, and the Red Sea crisis can complicate the delivery of humanitarian assistance to Yemen. Humanitarian organizations heavily depend on maritime routes to import food, medicine, and other essential supplies to the affected areas. Any disruption or blockage of these routes will hamper the delivery of assistance, exacerbating food insecurity among the already vulnerable population.
• Inflation and economic instability: A worsening crisis in the Red Sea could worsen economic instability in Yemen. The remittance may plummet, inflation may rise, and the national currency may depreciate, making food and other essential commodities even less affordable for the average Yemenis.
• Overall, the escalation of the crisis in the Red Sea is likely to worsen the food insecurity situation in Yemen in 2024, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian crisis. Immediate efforts to de-escalate tensions and facilitate the uninterrupted flow of commercial and humanitarian food supplies are essential to mitigating the expected negative impact on Yemenis.