Findings

Wheat prices appear to have been affected by the Russia-Ukraine war. This was expected because Zimbabwe imports 22% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, and the scarcity created by the war pushed prices higher. These trends were similar to world wheat prices over the same period. Changes in wheat prices were higher and faster in urban markets than in rural markets, underscoring the importance of domestic production in price determination.

Equally, sugar prices rose significantly from March in Zimbabwe's urban markets, which may partly be a result of the war, whose consequences included an increase in transport costs and a reduction in the international supply of commodities as countries hoarded their stocks to smooth their own domestic consumption. While rice prices exhibited a declining trend, maize prices rose in urban and rural markets, but the change was modest. Cooking oil prices, on the other hand, went up significantly in both urban and rural markets, but especially so in urban markets. These price hikes are attributable to the war as Russia and Ukraine controlled the world's sunflower oil trade, and their exports plummeted once the conflict began.

There were no observable changes in the prices of petroleum products and cooking gas in rural and urban markets, likely due to price subsidies by the government.

Recommendations

It is essential to keep food trade open in order to facilitate household access to stocks of those commodities from within and outside Zimbabwe as well as limit any negative effects of the ongoing conflict on the economy in general, and the poor more specifically.

It would also be useful to enhance social protections by developing and strengthening programs that support consumers and vulnerable households by providing safety nets, as was done during the most critical period of the COVID-19 pandemic.

To limit the effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict persisting for many years to come, Zimbabwe could strengthen programs that support farmers so that future production may increase and offset the effects of global shocks on domestic food prices. In this regard, increasing general funding to agriculture, improving prioritization of the sector, and avoiding pilferage of its allocations, can increase productivity and enhance the dynamic resilience of households.