Highlights:

Part 3.3.2 of the report focuses on the challenges of climate change to the agricultural sector.

Climate change and related weather shocks are causing substantial losses to agricultural output and are disrupting livelihoods in ROC. Between 2019 and 2021, floods affected about 5 percent of the population and destroyed thousands of hectares of agriculture land and other critical infrastructure, exacerbated food insecurity and malnutrition, and reduced access to safe drinking water. The rise in temperature is also expected to affect agricultural productivity growth. On average, estimates of agricultural output loss indicate a 5 percent shortfall by 2030 and about 10 percent by 2050.

The revised 2021 Congo Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) identifies climate-smart agriculture as an appropriate approach to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and reduce the vulnerability of smallholder farmers. The NDC clearly defines activities that will be key for adaptation to climate change and mitigation of GHG emissions alongside the agriculture value chain, including the need to (i) improve the management of water (both ground and surface water), (ii) increase food productivity through agroforestry, (iii) restore degraded lands, (iv) redirect cash crops cultivation in savannah areas, (v) reduce flood risk, and (vi) promote deforestation free supply chains to reduce GHG emissions linked to deforestation for agriculture expansions. Estimated financing needed for the implementation of the NDC adaptation program and mitigation measures related to agriculture and food security are respectively US$ 1 260 million and US$ 2676 million.

A climate-smart agriculture approach could boost resilience to climate change shocks. In 2020, the government endorsed a Climate-Smart Agriculture Investment Plan (CSAIP) as a major driver towards climate change resilience. The CSAIP highlights six priority investment actions for the development of a resilient agriculture sector in ROC, namely (i) adopt agroforestry practices, (ii) improve soil fertility and restore degraded lands, (iii) improve water resource management and irrigation, (iv) improve food crops productivity and supply, (v) redirect agriculture development (palm oil and cocoa) in savannah areas, and (vi) develop early warning and response systems (EWRS) for climate preparedness. Total cost of these measures amounts US$245 million. If fully implemented over 5 to 10 years, about 201,000 people will benefit and the investments will generate US$ 296 million Net Present Value (NPV), including financial incomes from a potential 12 MtCO2e in emissions reduction because of agroforestry and deforestation free agricultural practices. However, implementation of CSAIP is delayed due to limited internal technical and financial capacities and weak stakeholder engagement.

An “Integrated Climate Smart Agribusiness Model” could serve as a leveraging tool for effective implementation of the CSAIP. It will be used to facilitate the policy and institutional reforms needed to create an enabling business environment for private sector investments, facilitate the establishment of strategic partnerships for strong engagement of government, private sector, and smallholder farmers in CSA, and accelerate and increase private sector leadership in transforming the agriculture sector (through technology and innovation) toward more CSA at scale.