Highlights

Libya is struggling to cope with a trifecta of crises, including the civil conflict, the COVID-19 pandemic and most recently, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Notwithstanding the tempering of conflict intensity since 2021, the Libyan economy has been battered by the conflict. GDP per capita estimates in 2021 stood at about half of its value in 2010 before the start of the conflict. Since 2020, the population has been hit by multiple waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, food insecurity has worsened, precipitated by the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the resulting shortages and price increases for staple foods in the domestic market.

The authorities are implementing measures to ensure food availability around the country and limit food price increases. The Ministry of Economy and Trade in the Government of National Unity (GNU) is preparing a food security strategy to help the country cope with the food crisis. The authorities requested mill owners, agri-food businesses and commodity importers to create a three-month strategic stock of staple foods. The GNU tightened its price control measures by increasing the frequency of control visits to significant markets in Libya. It ordered and imposed a total ban on fish exports. To support local markets, the authorities have also been working with the governments of Turkey, Russia, and other countries to import grains and flour and with Tunisian counterparts to increase the bilateral trade of drugs and food. In its draft budget, the GNS, a rival government to GNU, reintroduced food subsidies worth LYD 900 million.

Price inflation has had a significant impact on Libyan households. According to a phone survey conducted by the World Food Program (WFP) in August-September 2021, more than half of surveyed households reported having experienced shocks in the last 12 months, with 38 percent reporting reduced ability to produce or purchase food. For households that experienced shocks, price fluctuations and increases (37 percent) rank highest among the types of shock experienced. Since the conduct of this survey, inflation has increased significantly, with further adverse impacts on the population’s purchasing power and wellbeing.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis have exacerbated the food security crisis for a population already grappling with conflict and an associated economic downturn. According to OCHA, more than 511,000 people (accounting for 6.2 percent of the total population, including migrants and refugees) were estimated to be food insecure and in need of assistance during the first five months of 2022. Comparing Libya to other oil-intensive countries experiencing a medium-intensity fragile and conflict situation reveals that food insecurity is worse than in Iraq and Nigeria but better than in its neighbour Chad (Figure 25). A WFP phone survey conducted in August-September 2021 showed that 8 percent of Libyan households had inadequate food consumption. Data from the REACH initiative’s MSNA conducted during the summer of 2021 reveals that 13 percent of Libyan households faced food insecurity, with assessed households in the South being the most exposed (27 percent). Meanwhile, 22 percent of internally displaced and returnee households experienced food insecurity, compared to 11 percent of non-displaced households and 17 percent of assessed migrant households. These figures are indicative but might not be nationally representative due to sampling challenges. Food insecurity is reportedly driven primarily by the inability to cover essential expenses financially. Over a quarter of assessed households reported trouble meeting basic food needs the month before the interview due to unaffordability.

Libyans’ main drivers of food security needs. While more recent data on food security is not available, the situation has likely taken a turn for the worse since the start of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, which resulted in a further escalation in food prices, particularly the prices of basic food staples.

Libyans and non-Libyans adopted one or more negative food-based coping mechanisms to maintain some level of food security. Relying on less preferred and less expensive foods, reducing the number of meals eaten in a day and limiting food portion size for all household members at mealtimes were the primary coping mechanisms cited by both Libyans and non-Libyans. The reduced coping strategies index was low for more than 85 percent of interviewed households in the summer of 2021 but is likely to have worsened throughout 2022 to date.

Inflationary and food security risks are elevated. As a result of Libya’s heavy dependence on food imports, specifically from Ukraine and Russia, food security in the country has been significantly impacted by the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Since the start of the crisis, Libya has been facing wheat and cereals supply disruptions, shortages, speculative behaviours by producers and traders along the supply chain, and higher prices. The likelihood of resuming Ukrainian wheat imports is uncertain, whereas other large importers, including India, have imposed a ban on exports to ensure their food security. The war in Ukraine may lead to further supply chain disruptions and sharper than expected agricultural product price increases. In addition, high global fuel prices may raise the prices of other imported goods. With higher inflation, consumers’ purchasing power will decline, likely resulting in lower consumption, increased food insecurity, and greater use of negative coping mechanisms by vulnerable households. The authorities hope to reinstate food subsidies to mitigate the impact of food price inflation on the population. However, potential delays due to political tensions and/or inadequate state capacity to swiftly roll out food subsidies across the country could increase social tensions.

The publication contains an annex dedicated to the impact of Russia’s war against Ukraine on Libya.