Highligths:

• Area planted with cereals in 2024/25 is estimated to be 2.9 percent below the previous five-year average, due to below-average rainfall amounts at planting time, farmers' crop diversification toward potatoes and vegetables and land abandonment due to outmigration, particularly in the hilly regions.
• Cereal yields in 2024 benefited from an increased supply of fertilizer compared to 2023 and above-average rainfall amounts. However, for paddy, these benefits were partially offset by the negative impact of floods and heavy rainfall between July and September 2024, affecting Bagmati, Madesh and Koshi provinces, and several districts in central Gandaki and Lumbini provinces the most.
• Aggregated 2024/25 cereal production is projected at 8.7 million tonnes, about 1.4 percent below the previous five-year average. Paddy and maize outputs are expected to be 2.1 and 1.9 percent, respectively, below the last five-year average. Wheat production is forecast at 2 million tonnes, about 5.3 percent below the last five-year average.
• Paddy productivity has stagnated over the last five years due to inadequate access to critical agriculture inputs, particularly fertilizers and mechanization, as well as the impact of extreme weather events. Fertilizer supply is insufficient and skewed toward nitrogen, resulting in a shortage of other essential nutrients, particularly potash, which reduces overall fertilizer efficiency.
• Considering moderate losses of livestock due to floods, dry weather conditions affecting pastureland in the spring and outbreaks of pests and diseases, cattle population is estimated at 4 percent below the previous five-year average, while the buffalo, goat and pig populations are estimated to be 1.2, 6.6 and 10.6 percent, respectively, higher than the average.
• Prices of most food commodities, including staple rice, have been on a steady increase since early 2023, reaching record or near-record levels in November 2024. The increase was primarily due to tight market availability, reduced cereal imports in 2023 and 2024, and high production and transport costs. In December 2024, food inflation reached 10 percent, the highest level since early 2020.
• The country's food import requirements for the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 915 000 tonnes (cereal equivalent), including 509 000 tonnes of rice, 237 000 tonnes of maize, 71 000 tonnes of wheat, 30 000 tonnes of millet and other cereals, and 67 000 tonnes of potatoes. Import requirements for pulses are forecast at 160 000 tonnes. These requirement are expected to be fully met through commercial imports.