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  • Publication | 2023

FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief February 2023

FAO’s latest forecast for world cereal production in 2022 has been raised by 8.3 million tonnes (0.3 percent) this month to 2 765 million tonnes, albeit still 1.7 percent lower year-on-year. The increase is predominantly related to wheat, reflecting upward revisions made for Australia and the Russian Federation, which raised the forecast for the global wheat output to 794 million tonnes and reinforced the expectations for a record-high outturn in 2022. For coarse grains, global production is pegged at 1 459 million tonnes in 2022, moderately down compared to the preceding forecast in December and now 3.3 percent below the level in 2021. The most recent cut reflects lower maize production estimates for the European Union, the United States of America and the Russian Federation, which more than offset an upward revision for China. The forecast for the world barley outturn has been raised moderately, resting on an upturn in harvest prospects in Australia, while the forecast for global sorghum production remains unchanged from December. As for rice, assessments released by Chinese officials in December, point to a lower level of plantings than previously envisaged by FAO, especially in north-eastern producing areas, which added to some yield decreases caused by heat and dryness in the southern parts of the country. The downward revision for rice production in China more than offset upward revisions made for several other countries, most notably Bangladesh, where authorities report positive outcomes for the second most important crop of the season, despite some rainfall-related setbacks at the planting stage. As a result, global rice production is now forecast in the order of 512 million tonnes (milled basis), down 1.2 million tonnes lower than the December forecast and 2.6 percent from the 2021 all-time high.