The month of May marks the release of the first forecasts for global cereal production, but with many crops yet to be planted in the northern hemisphere, there is a high level of uncertainty with these projections. This year, the validity of the first forecasts for 2024/25 wheat production is already being tested, as drought and prolonged frost in key producing areas of the Russian Federation have constrained yield prospects. Consequently, world wheat export prices surged during May on deepening production worries, centred on the Black Sea region. Wheat, most of which is consumed as food with only a limited number of substitutes, is being watched very closely, particularly by importing countries from a food security perspective.