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  • Publication | 2023

AMIS Market Monitor – July 2023

Global Food and Nutrition Security

Highlights:

The fate of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is again in jeopardy. The collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam last month has flooded cropland along the Dnipro River and disrupted irrigation. Meanwhile, the ammonia pipeline from the Russian Federation to the Ukrainian port of Pivdennyi has also been damaged. The pipeline has not been in operation since the start of the war; however, its reopening has been a key demand of the Russian Federation to renew the grain deal. While these events are not likely to have major impacts on grain supplies in the short term, they further increase tensions that could result in a termination of the agreement later this month. This would reduce Black Sea exports and further reduce Ukraine production incentives.

Prices for most fertilizer products continued their downward trend in June, pointing to well-supplied global markets. The sustained decrease in natural gas prices has particularly supported production of nitrogen-based fertilizers. Seasonal low demand in the Northern Hemisphere for several fertilizers also contributed to lower prices.