The 2023 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM) analyzes continental and regional trends in African agricultural trade flows and policies, with a special focus on the East African Community (EAC), the cotton value chain, and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on African countries.
Africa is facing increasing threats at several levels. Climate change is becoming more evident as the rate of temperature rise across Africa reached 0.3°C per decade from 1991 to 2021, which is faster than the global average (0.2°C per decade). Serious actions must be taken by African countries at the national, regional, and continental levels (especially through the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement) to make trade flows sustainable and trade policies more environment-friendly so as to reduce the negative impact of trade on climate and the environment (Chapter 1).
Most of Africa’s regional trade agreements are “shallow,” with a limited impact on trade in agricultural products. The literature distinguishes between shallow agreements (that focus on tariff reductions only) and deep ones (that go beyond tariff reductions). Deeper trade agreements—characterized by horizontal depth (measured by the number of provisions that are included in trade agreements) and vertical depth (which refers to the legal enforceability of such provisions)—are more likely to affect trade. Chapter 2 finds that the impact of Africa’s regional trade agreements on this trade is limited. Inclusion of provisions on non-tariff measures (NTMs) is important, as it is estimated to increase exports of agricultural products by between 20 percent (for technical barriers to trade) and 26 percent (for sanitary and phytosanitary measures).
Intra-African agricultural trade has increased significantly since the early 2000s, with an increasing share of processed products. Chapter 3 analyses intra-African trade with a focus on the nutritional content of trade flows. Intra-African trade has increased since the 2000s, but has stabilized in the current challenging international environment and, at US$14.9 billion in 2021, remains below its peak value of US$16.1 billion recorded in 2013. In terms of Africa’s trade partners, around 14 percent of Africa’s total agricultural imports are sourced from within the continent, and 20 percent of total agricultural exports are destined to the continental market. When trade flows are converted into their content in calories, proteins, fats, and key micronutrients, we find that intra-African trade plays a relatively smaller role in meeting Africa’s nutrient needs.
The cotton value chain is primarily concentrated in unprocessed cotton and faces several challenges. Chapter 4 analyses Africa’s cotton value chain, including levels of processing and trade patterns.
The war in Ukraine had a significant impact on Africa, especially through major disruptions in fertilizers and food trade. The Russia-Ukraine war, analysed in Chapter 5, has brought an additional challenge to already turbulent global markets since its onset in 2022, especially for several African countries that are heavy importers of wheat and fertilizers from the warring countries.
The EAC, which has a high share of agriculture GDP in total GDP among the RECs, trades more at the intraregional level than outside the region (Chapter 6).
