Decision makers are faced with a world characterised by increasing turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. These conditions make it more difficult to assess risks when making strategic decisions or planning for the long-term. This study presents a foresight approach to increase preparedness for unexpected developments and the risks they could create.

Foresight methods offer a way to consider and focus on risks that may be beyond the scope of traditional quantitative and qualitative risk assessment approaches. Several snapshots of the future depict different worlds that have undergone substantial changes as a consequence of emerging developments. An analysis of the risks inherent in the possible futures identified ten risk clusters that are relevant for decision makers, and mapped future developments that might lead to them.

The same development pathways that could lead to risks can also create opportunities, and the study provides some examples. Decision makers face the challenge of mitigating the adverse effects of risks, while reaping the benefits of potential opportunities. This study also presents the results of a Delphi survey that evaluated the scope and severity of risks. Three of the 40 risks identified in this study were assessed to be potentially existential for humanity: 1) environmental degradation, 2) environmental disasters, and 3) loss of power by humans.

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UN Summit of the Future: Risks on the horizon

JRC hosted a panel discussion at the UN Summit of the Future on September 21st 2024 on how foresight can complement classical risk assessment methods. 

The United Nations will publish its first Global Risk Report in Autumn 2024. This follows the UNDRR UN Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction in 2023. The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission published in June 2024 its report  "Risks on the Horizon". In addition, the World Economic Forum published its Global Risk Report in January 2024. The panel gathers together experts behind these reports and speakers highlight how existing foresight methods can help to identify future risks, many of which are inter-generational, by using methods which do not rely on a risk already being known.

Panellists

• Ayaka Suzuki, Director, Strategic Planning and Monitoring Unit, Executive Office of the Secretary-General, United Nations (UN)
• Lori Moore Merrell, U.S Fire Administrator, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
• Thomas Hemmelgarn, Head of Unit, EU Policy Lab, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (EC)
• Bryonie Guthrie, Foresight and Organizational Transformation, Strategic Intelligence, World Economic Forum (WEF)
• Timo Harakka, Member of Parliament, Vice Chairperson of the Committee for the Future, Finland

Moderators

• Tommi Asikainen, Joint Research Centre, European Commission
• Anne-Katrin Bock, Joint Research Centre, European Commission

Watch the recording of the event UN Web TV

Read the insights from the  Blog