Anticipating shocks through social protection

Social protection systems are increasingly recognized as pivotal tools for building resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate-related shocks, especially among populations in low- and middle-income countries.This literature review synthesizes recent empirical evidence on the socioeconomic impacts of anticipatory social protection interventions, particularly forecast-based cash transfers, implemented in response to climate-related shocks. Drawing on eleven case studies from Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the review examines how anticipatory action, delivered before the onset of hazards such as floods, droughts, and extreme winter events, affects household preparedness, food security, livelihoods, coping strategies, and wellbeing. The findings indicate that well-timed anticipatory cash transfers can enhance short-term food security, protect productive assets, reduce reliance on negative coping strategies, and improve psychological wellbeing, especially when interventions are targeted to highly exposed populations and delivered with sufficient lead time. Cost-effectiveness analyses, though limited, suggest that anticipatory action can yield higher returns than traditional post-shock responses. However, the evidence base remains limited, and operational challenges (including targeting, delivery, and ethical considerations) highlight the need for further integration of anticipatory action into national social protection systems and disaster risk financing. The review highlights critical research gaps and policy implications, emphasizing the importance of embedding anticipatory action within broader social protection frameworks to strengthen climate resilience and support poverty reduction in vulnerable contexts.