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  • Topic / Tool | Last updated: 18 Oct 2024
Reference Foresight Scenarios

Scenarios on the global standing of the EU in 2040

Foresight

Brief me

reference scenarios_1

Our reference foresight scenarios explore different possible futures for the global standing of the EU in 2040.

These foresight scenarios offer strategic reflections which can serve as a compass for decision-makers navigating under increasingly unpredictable circumstances

  • for stress-testing policies and policy proposals

  • for reflecting on future challenges and how they are linked

  • for developing futures literacy 

 

 

These four geopolitical scenarios are called ‘reference’ scenarios because they represent a forward-looking framework that provides a reference for use in policymakers’ debates about potential futures. 

The Reference Foresight Scenarios - report explains the foresight process behind the scenarios. It introduces the four scenarios of the global standing of the EU in 2040 called Storms, End game, Struggling synergies, and Opposing views. The scenarios do not claim to predict or project how the future may look like but they offer strategic reflections, which can serve as a compass for policymakers for navigating through unchartered territories of turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity.  

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The report also presents different ways to use these scenarios in participative workshops. 

Stress-testing policies and policy proposals

Participatory workshops to stress-test or wind-tunnel policy options allow policymakers to determine whether a policy option would perform well under different and sometimes difficult circumstances and how to make them more robust. Stress-testing can play an important role in policy development and support the EU’s Better Regulation Agenda. 

For a concrete example please see the report Stress-testing of Policy Options Using Foresight Scenarios: A pilot case.

 
Reflecting on future challenges and how they are linked

The scenarios can be used to discuss the implications of future uncertainties for a particular policy field, which can help policymakers to decide on the best strategy.


Developing futures literacy

The reference foresight scenarios can be used in creative foresight exercises, such as serious games. Through them, participants can develop futures literacy, discuss possible future policy designs, and gain new perspectives on the future. See for example the FuturGov serious foresight game or the Scenario Exploration System, both can be used with the set of reference foresight scenarios. 

 

Read the report

Explore the pilot case

 

Contact us for any questions and comments.

Latest knowledge

EVENT | 19 Aug 2025
Reference Foresight Scenarios launch
How can EU policymakers ensure that their efforts today are futureproof and adapted to the constantly changing realities of our world?