Highlights:

Part 4 of the article deals with global economic prospects.

According to the article, the war in Ukraine’s effects on energy, the persistent disruptions to the global supply chain, and the monetary policies adopted to handle rising inflation have led to pessimism about the economic future of 2023. According to the International Monetary Fund, global economic growth at the end of 2022 will be around 3.2%. However, in the forecasts for next year the figure falls to 2.7% – the lowest since 2001, with the exception of pandemic-hit 2020. 

The IMF estimates that inflation will peak in 2022, with an annual global average of 8.8%, falling to 6.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024. However, while the World Bank warns that current policies may not be enough to reduce inflation, other experts warn of the danger of an overreaction that could aggravate the effects of this price rise. 

The risk is rising of a debt crisis spreading through emerging economies in 2023. According to The Economist, 53 emerging countries are on the brink of being unable to meet their debt payments due to rising prices and the global economic slowdown. Among the countries in a particularly delicate situation in 2023 will be Pakistan, Egypt and Lebanon, which will struggle to meet foreign debt payments.

Part 5 of the article deals more specifically with to access to global public goods, in particular energy, food and drinking water.

The article states that the world faces an unprecedented food crisis with no end in sight. According to the United Nations, in 2022 some 345 million people in 82 countries live in a situation of acute or high-risk food insecurity, around 200 million more than before the pandemic.

According to the article, special attention should be given to the Middle East and North Africa. In this region, which is already battered by inflation and imports over 50% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, the rising cost of living and the shortage of basic goods have triggered mass protests. The World Food Programme (WFP) warns that 2023 could be even worse. This year's food crisis was down mainly to the logistical interruption produced by the blockade of cereal and fertiliser exports, but in 2023 food supply could be endangered by the effects of these disruptions on crops, as well as the possibility of extreme weather events. Food shortages even affect international humanitarian aid organisations, whose resources for dealing with rising famine figures are dwindling.