Between January-March 2025, approximately 335,000 people (22 percent of the rural population) are expected to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis), compared to 403,000 people in the May 2024 analysis for the same period. All ten districts remain classified under IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) during this period.

The projected analysis period in Lesotho aligns with the lean season starting from October to March 2025. The projection analysis conducted in November 2024, shows an improved food security situation compared to the May 2024 assessment and analysis. This improvement is largely due to ongoing humanitarian assistance—such as cash and food transfers—from the government of Lesotho, humanitarian organizations, and UN agencies, which have significantly helped reduce food gaps.

During this period, key hazards anticipated include heavy rainfall, following a normal to above-normal rainfall forecast across all districts, along with episodes of high temperatures. Additional challenges include declining income sources, such as lower livestock sales due to increased market competition and some restrictions on livestock movement across the border to the Republic of South Africa (RSA), where other areas have market opportunities. Persistent high food and non-food prices, such as fuel and electricity, have negatively affected already depleted purchasing power, alongside reduced humanitarian assistance as the season progresses.