Highlights:

• Net official development assistance is projected to fall again by 6.9% in 2026. This marks a third consecutive year of decline, bringing ODA to its lowest level since 2014. These projections do not account for the potential further escalation of ongoing crises or additional budgetary responses to them.
• Aid cuts are broad-based but uneven. Most reductions come from a small number of the largest providers. Some EU countries are more stable, but not enough to offset global declines. Many highly aid-dependent countries rely on a small number of providers, increasing vulnerability to shocks.
• The poorest countries are hit hardest. Bilateral ODA to sub-Saharan Africa and the least developed countries is projected to fall again in 2026, by 11.6% and 10.9% respectively, marking a third straight year of decline that leaves both at their lowest levels since the early 2000s. Multilateral channels are not expected to fill the gap.
• Health bears the deepest sectoral cuts, dropping below pre-pandemic levels. Health ODA is projected to fall by 29-46% from 2024 to 2026, with population and reproductive health (-54.1%) and the control of communicable diseases (malaria: -59.6%, tuberculosis: -57.2%, other infectious-disease control: -40.4%) most exposed. Humanitarian aid (-40.3%) and government and civil society (-39.8%) follow.
• Multilateral ODA has broken from a long-standing upward trend. It is projected to fall again by 3.4% in 2026. Core funding to UN organisations is expected to fall by around 31% from 2024 to 2026 and remain about 18% below its 2016 level by 2028. Current reform processes of the multilateral system are expected to unfold in a context of significantly constrained funding.
• In light of these projected trends, development co-operation providers must:
  • Target scarce ODA grants to the poorest countries.
  • Plan exits from partner countries responsibly and co-ordinate them.
  • Make remaining resources, and wider policies, work harder for development.