A high-intensity El Niño event is confirmed as forming in the tropical Pacific as of June–July 2026. NOAA issued an El Niño Advisory on June 11, 2026; the World Meteorological Organization assigns El Niño probability at or above 90% for the second half of 2026; and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University assigns 100% probability of El Niño conditions through at least November 2026, with subsurface ocean heat content at nearly double its equivalent June 2023 level. This joint strategic assessment, produced by the ISDO Economics & Social Affairs Department and Security & Intelligence Department, provides a comprehensive, evidence-based analysis of the cascading risks generated by this event across six interconnected domains: agricultural production and food security, global commodity markets and food prices, forced displacement and migration, conflict and state fragility, macroeconomic performance, and humanitarian response architecture. 

The report documents that 52.8 million people in West Africa and the Sahel are already projected to face acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3+) in the June–August 2026 lean season before El Niño reaches its peak; that Southern Africa, which suffered its worst drought in a century during the 2023–24 event (affecting approximately 68 million people), faces a renewed drier-than-normal 2026/27 rainy season beginning around October 2026; that the climate- conflict nexus in the Sahel is empirically grounded and operationally significant, with jihadist organizations documented to exploit resource scarcity for territorial control and recruitment; and that the global economy faces estimated cumulative losses in the range of $3–7 trillion over the event cycle. 

Against the worst humanitarian financing backdrop in a decade — with the 2025 global appeal receiving only $12 billion — the report argues that the $202 million FAO/WFP Joint Anticipatory Action Appeal, which offers documented returns of up to $7 per $1 invested, represents the highest-return risk-reduction opportunity currently available in the global humanitarian system.