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  • Publication | 2026
Food security amid the US Iran war: a food system analysis and a framework for coordinated multilevel action

Geopolitical conflict in the Arabian Gulf carries profound implications for global food security that extend far beyond the immediate theatre of hostilities. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global petroleum and one-fifth of liquefied natural gas trade transits daily, represents a critical chokepoint whose disruption simultaneously increases fertilizer costs, raises food processing and cold-chain operating costs, inflates maritime insurance premiums, triggers speculative commodity price spikes, erodes household purchasing power, and collapses physical and sociocultural food environments, particularly across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

This perspective examines the food security consequences of the U.S-Iran conflict through a food system lens, tracing disruption pathways across six interconnected dimensions: food production, processing, distribution, retail, consumption, and the food environment, and ultimately food security, dietary quality and nutritional outcomes. Unlike localized production shocks, energy and fertilizer driven shocks affect virtually every stage of the food system simultaneously, amplifying both the speed and scale at which food insecurity can spread. Addressing the food security risks associated with this war therefore requires a proactive, multi-level approach that integrates household preparedness, community resilience, national food security policies, and international institutional reforms. Strengthening food system resilience should be recognized not only as an agricultural or development priority but as a critical component of global security and public health policy.