The Futures Wheel is a foresight method that allows the exploration of potential future direct impacts and their knock-on effects, triggered by a chosen change factor, which we call here a ‘signal’. 

The approach guides group discussions to systematically unveil many different potential future impacts. These impacts do not have to be consistent and can even be contradictory, demonstrating how the same signal can lead to different outcomes.

How to use it

The Futures Wheel workshop duration is one to three hours, depending on aspects like participant availability, how many knock-on effects to consider, and what additional steps are included. The workshop agenda presented here can be tailored and adapted to the specific objectives of the workshop. 

Activity 1: Selecting signal(s)

The Futures Wheel exploration starts with an introduction to the workshop topic, followed by the selection of a signal(s) from the Signal cards deck to be explored. Using one signal is quick and already gives an idea of multiple potential future developments. However, selecting two or even three signals creates a more complex future development to explore. The selection of the signal(s) to work with should be based on participants’ curiosity - signals that are more interesting, surprising, or potentially impactful. 

Signal cards set contains over 80 signals from wide range of topics coming from the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) Horizon Scanning process. More signals can be found from the ESPAS website or participants can look for own signals as well. 

Activity 2: News article from the future

The workshop participants imagine a future where developments described by the selected signal has become mainstream (and occur simultaneously in the case of several signals) and must be addressed using the News article canvas.

The participants create a headline for a future news article that captures some elements of the developments and selects a picture that broadly reflects the development. Signal cards provided in the toolkit can be used or pictures from any other source. 

Next some of the participants adopt the perspective of an enthusiastic person, while the others will take the viewpoint of someone opposing the development, and generate arguments supporting their stand. 

Activity 3: Futures Wheel 

Using the selected signal(s), the process continues by identifying potential impacts using the Futures Wheel canvas. Participants start with identifying first-order impacts projected to occur within a certain time frame, such as within 5 years into the future, from different fields using the STEEP categories (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political aspects) encouraging participants to examine the issue from a broad perspective. 

The next step is to describe potential knock-on effects resulting from the direct implications. Participants imagine what second-order impacts may occur if the first-order impacts came true. 

The number of iterations can be tailored to the objectives of the workshop. To keep the length of the workshop reasonable and to avoid participant fatigue, a Futures Wheel usually does not extend beyond third-order impacts.

Activity 4: Identifying emerging themes

The workshop ends with identifying emerging themes. The step involves searching for the most intriguing groups of impacts across the Futures Wheel. Apart from exploring relevant themes, you may select other approaches relevant to the workshop goal, for example, identifying future research questions, funding needs, or policy actions, or exploring risks and opportunities. 

The workshop ends with sharing in plenary in case of having sub-groups working with different Futures Wheels and considering how to best use the insights of the exercise.

Toolkit components

Download the workshop materials here:

Futures Wheel workshop facilitator's guide

Signal cards for Futures Wheel 

News article canvas

Picture cards for Futures Wheel

Futures Wheel canvas

You can print the materials or use them in the digital platforms. For professional printing see the print specifications.

Contact us for any questions or comments.