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  • Publication | 2026
Temperature changes and agricultural performance linkage: Evidence from Africa
Global Food and Nutrition Security

Temperature changes pose significant challenges for agriculture, influencing crop yields, resource use, and food security. Understanding these dynamics is essential for assessing risks and developing sustainable adaptation strategies. This paper investigates the impact of temperatures on agriculture value added across 46 African countries from 1993 to 2022. Multiple econometric approaches were used, including an error correction model, impulse-response analysis, and non-parametric partial-kernel regression. The results show a statistically significant and robust negative effect of temperatures on agriculture value added. Diagnostics confirm cointegration and robustness across model specifications. The findings underscore the importance of targeted adaptation strategies for safeguarding agricultural productivity in Africa.