The JRC is developing a new model to project future changes in the demand for LTC across all EU Member States. Building on the SANDEM project, which projected healthcare workforce supply and demand, this work is part of research to mainstream demographic considerations across EU policies. The new model will explore various scenarios related to population health and household composition to support the design of sustainable care systems that respond to Europe's ageing population, as well as its evolving household structures.

To lay the groundwork for this work, a new report examines existing methodologies for defining care needs, incorporating different care types into projections, and estimating workforce requirements and expenditure and the impact on families. The report outlines the main scenarios to be included in the proposed EU27-wide LTC demand model. The final chapter introduces the preliminary design of the model, with some aspects already decided based on the mapping exercise and the data required to produce comparable results for all EU Member States. Other components will be refined in the coming weeks, for example by testing different definitions of people in need and comparing the results. Discussions with experts from other JRC units and DGs will inform the further development of the model.

The proposed JRC model will provide national authorities with a strategic planning tool for anticipating care needs and strengthening LTC systems. It will contribute to the EU care strategy and provide analytical input for the 2027 EU Long-Term Care and Pension Adequacy Report.