The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034 provides a comprehensive assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets at national, regional, and global levels.

Rising incomes, especially in middle-income economies, are expected to increase the daily per capita caloric intake of meat, dairy, fish, and other animal products by 6% over the next decade. However, in low-income countries, daily intake of these nutrient-rich foods will remain low at just 143 kcal by 2034, well below the 300 kcal included in the Healthy Diet Basket used by FAO.

Global agricultural and fish production is expected to increase by 14% over the next decade, mainly enabled by productivity improvements, particularly in middle-income countries. However, this increased production, along with ongoing structural changes in the sector, is associated with expanded animal herds and cropland areas.

Scenario simulations indicate that the elimination of undernourishment globally by 2034 can go hand in hand with a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 7%. Achieving these dual outcomes would require a 15% agricultural productivity increase complemented by widespread adoption of emission-reduction technologies, while attaining a production level sufficient to eradicate undernourishment globally.

As demand for food and feed grows, with production often located far from consumption areas, the Outlook projects that 22% of all calories will cross international borders over the next ten years. To ensure the efficient movement of agricultural and fish products, multilateral cooperation and a rules-based agricultural trade system are crucial. These frameworks will not only enhance food security but also improve sustainability and resilience in the face of potential supply disruptions.

Real agricultural commodity prices are projected to decline in the medium term as the overall productivity of the agricultural sector increases, putting pressure on individual farmers, and especially smallholders, at the lower end of the productivity scale to continue to raise their own productivity. Sustained improvements in efficiency, adoption of innovative technologies, better access to inputs, knowledge, and markets, and effective business risk management practices are critical for maintaining farm incomes and livelihoods.

Some further facts

• Global cereal production is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1%, driven largely by a 0.9 percent annual increase in yields. Harvested area is projected to expand by just 0.14 percent annually, less than half the 0.33 percent rate of the previous decade.
• By 2034, 40 percent of all cereals will be consumed directly by humans, while 33 percent will be used for animal feed. Biofuel production and other industrial uses are projected to account for the rest.
• Global demand for biofuels is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent, driven primarily by increases in Brazil, India and Indonesia.
• Sub-Saharan Africa illustrates the significant opportunities for a robust set of initiatives to improve productivity: the region’s beef cattle herd is three times larger than in North America and is projected to grow by 15 percent, while output per animal is only about one-tenth as high.
• India and Southeast Asian countries are projected to account for 39 percent of global consumption growth by 2034, compared to 32 percent over the past decade, while China’s share is projected at 13 percent, down from 32 percent over the past decade.
• In high-income countries, per capita consumption of fats and sweeteners is projected to decline due to shifting preferences, policy changes, and emerging health concerns.