Highlights

Food Outlook is a biannual publication (May/June and November/December) focusing on developments affecting global food and feed markets. This edition contains two special features on the impact of Russia’s war against Ukraine on global food security.

High input prices protract high food prices, creating a double burden for import-dependent countries

The main findings from the analysis are as follows:

• An all-time high Global Input Price Index (GIPI), underpinned by record energy and fertilizer prices, points to exceptionally low prices for farmers in real terms and limited incentives to step up production in 2023.

• For farmers to step-up production, real prices have to rise. This can materialize either through further rising output prices (FFPI) or falling costs/input prices (GIPI) or, ideally, a combination of the two.

• Either record or high input prices fuelled sharp increases in agricultural input import bills in 2021 and price momentum is forecast to heighten bills further in 2022.

• Increases in agricultural input import bills do not imply an increased inflow of inputs. The bills are being driven by price rises at the expense of greatly reduced imports of inputs. Again, this bodes ill for a much-needed positive production response in 2023.