The shift of economic power from the established Western economies and Japan towards the emerging economies in the East and South is set to continue. China has already surpassed the USA as the largest economy in GDP at Purchasing Power Parity, according to most estimates, and together with the rest of Asia (particularly India and Indonesia) they are set to dominate the global economy. Other emerging markets will be further ‘winners’ from the shrinking of Western economies, as the E7 (China, India, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, Mexico and Turkey) could account for 50% of global GDP by 2050, according to some projections. Africa is a continent in transformation and will become a larger player in the future global economy, with a huge free trade area (AfCFTA) and economic diversification. 

Strategic autonomy (i.e. independence and freedom to act), populist nationalism and systemic failures of interdependent supply chains have led to a slowdown in the speed of globalisation, and its fragmentation. Globalisation will continue to be important, but might be more fragmented, based on strengthened trade within regional trade blocks and between like-minded partners - ‘a multipolar world’.