Key findings:

Based on an in-depth analysis of 47 projects implemented across seven countries and at the regional level, the study takes stock of what worked and what did not when addressing the root causes of irregular migration and forced displacement in the Horn of Africa. The findings are presented in a comprehensive technical report and three thematic science-for-policy briefs.

Thematic insights from the science-for-policy brief:

1. Access to employment and livelihood opportunities:
   • Support for small enterprises and rural livelihoods has shown positive income effect.
   • Deeper engagement with private sector actors and better alignment with labour market realities are necessary for sustained gains.
2. Migration and forced displacement management:
   • Initiatives promoting inclusive governance and cross-border cooperation have yielded better results.
   • Contextual factors, such as political will and institutional strength, play a major role in determining success.
3. Social cohesion and conflict resolution:
   • Community-based justice services and shared economic opportunities for displaced and host populations have been especially effective.
   • While interventions targeting institutional actors or victims of violence have shown limited direct impact, they still contribute indirectly by shifting attitudes and raising awareness of key issues.
      

General findings and lessons learned: 

Besides thematic-specific conclusions, the technical report presents four overarching conclusions, supported by a rich body of evidence:

• Positive but limited impact of interventions: While many EUTF projects delivered tangible benefits, the scale and depth of their impact were often less than anticipated.
  A range of unforeseen external factors contributed to this disparity, including ongoing conflicts, climate-related events, the COVID-19 pandemic, and new waves of displacement.
• Greater effectiveness through integrated and locally-owned approaches: 
  The most impactful interventions combined "hard" support (e.g., infrastructure, financial inputs) with "soft" components (e.g., training, capacity building).
• Investing in institutional and human capacity for long-term sustainability: Efforts that strengthened local institutions and built human capital at the local and community level demonstrated promising prospects for lasting impact.
• Inclusive targeting strengthens social cohesion: Interventions that reached both displaced populations and host communities contributed to improved relations and reduced tensions.

Recommendations for programme design:

• Programme design and implementation should be collaborative and evidence-based, incorporating diverse perspectives and stakeholder input to ensure that interventions are tailored to the specific needs of the region.
• Stronger monitoring and evaluation systems are vital to capture short-term, long-term, and unintended effects, and to inform programme adjustments in real time.

The study's findings and recommendations offer a valuable foundation for designing more effective, inclusive and sustainable interventions in the Horn of Africa region, as the EU prepares to launch future initiatives under the current Neighbourhood, Development and International Cooperation Instrument (NDICI) and the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF).

The technical report and thematic briefs are now available for download here.