Southern Africa. The main cereal season is reaching its end across the region under mixed conditions. Although rainfall has improved in the region since January, and some recovery of crop and rangeland biomass is observed, the impact of drought on croplands and rangelands is still evident in some areas. Specifically, crop conditions remain poor in central and southern Malawi, some central and northern parts of Mozambique and western and southern Zambia. Below-average rangeland conditions are observed in central and southern Malawi, in north-western and eastern Namibia and in central and southern Zambia. Moreover, Tropical Storm Jude struck Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique between 6 and 16 March, affecting nearly 340 000 people, damaging infrastructure and crops, blocking roads and disrupting access to essential services (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs). According to the latest agromet update by the Southern African Development Community, the presence of African armyworm and locusts outbreaks has been reported in Botswana, Eswatini, Madagascar, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe, threatening late-planted crops. Moreover, according to the same update, livestock diseases, including lumpy skin disease and tick infestations, have been reported in parts of Botswana and Namibia. South Africa, the main cereal producer in the region is expecting an increased maize production compared to last year’s poor output (almost 15% above) (Crop Estimates Committee, 2nd production figures). The harvesting of main-season cereal crops is expected to start in April in the region and, thanks to the improved rainfall conditions since January, the 2025 cereal production is expected at near-average levels (Food and Agriculture Organization’s Crop Prospects and Food Situation – Triannual global report (March 2025)).

East Africa. The onset of April to June rains has started in several East African countries, with planting activities currently under way. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre regional rainfall forecast for this period shows drier-than-usual conditions in south-eastern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia, South Sudan and parts of western Uganda, raising concerns about low crop production next season. In terms of food insecurity, Somalia is facing worsening conditions following consecutive poor production seasons in 2024. The situation is expected to deteriorate further with the anticipated failure of the 2025 Gu rains. In South Sudan, conflict continues to disrupt agricultural activities, exacerbating severe food insecurity driven by economic instability, flooding and an inflow of refugees from Sudan. Sudan remains the region’s most critical hotspot, contributing about 65% of the IGAD caseload, with famine conditions (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) phase 5) having been detected in some areas. The country’s humanitarian needs are already at an unprecedented level. Acute food insecurity therefore remains alarmingly high across the region, with nearly 38 million people across six IGAD member states– Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda– in IPC phase 3 or worse. Of these, 27 million are in crisis (IPC phase 3), 11 million are in emergency (IPC phase 4) and 644 000 are in catastrophe (IPC phase 5). Additionally, many countries are feeling the impact of recent US cuts to food and development aid, with Sudan among the hardest hit. Without timely interventions, humanitarian needs will continue to escalate, particularly in the most vulnerable areas. The demand for urgent assistance therefore remains critically high.

West and central Africa. With the onset of seasonal rains in March, land preparation and sowing activities for the first maize season have started in the southern bimodal parts of the region, along the coast of the Gulf of Guinea. Rainfall conditions were average in March across the region. In Sahelian countries, planting activities are expected to start in April in southern areas. The Copernicus Climate Change Service multimodel seasonal rainfall forecast for April–May 2025 indicates average rainfall in most parts of the region, which is expected to support crop establishment. However, the same forecast points to drier-than-average conditions in the south-western part of the region. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization’s Crop Prospects and Food Situation– Triannual global report (March 2025), ‘the persisting conflicts and civil insecurity in the regions of Liptako‑Gourma (overlapping Burkina Faso, Mali and the Niger), Lake Chad and northern Nigeria are expected to continue to undermine farmers’ productive capacities in 2025’.

Middle East and North Africa. In the Middle East, dry conditions since the start of the season have resulted in mixed levels of winter cereals biomass: below average in most of Iran, except Khuzestan (above-average biomass thanks to irrigation) and north-western Iran (close-to-average biomass levels) for the time being, very poor in northern Iraq (in contrast with central and southern Iraq, where average to above-average levels are observed) and very poor in Syria, reaching its lowest level since 2002 in northern Syria. According to the Copernicus seasonal forecast, wetter-than-average conditions are expected in April in Iraq and Syria, but it is unlikely that cereals will recover from their poor start to the season. In Yemen, the harvesting of irrigated wheat has started in the Eastern Plateau and should start in May in the central and northern highlands, with above-average crop biomass and hence favourable prospects. However, food insecurity continues to affect 19 million out of the population of 30 million as a result of the poor socioeconomic conditions. In the Maghreb, prospects for winter cereals are mixed: they are very poor in west Algeria and Morocco as a result of the dry conditions since the start of the season, despite recent rainfall, and below average in the central south and south-east of Algeria. In contrast, prospects are favourable in the north-east of Algeria and in Tunisia. According to the latest JRC MARS bulletin, in Morocco, wheat and barley yields are forecast at 27% and 26% below their respective five-year mean; they are forecast close to average in Algeria (-1% and +6% for wheat and barley respectively) and above average in Tunisia (+13% and +24% for wheat and barley respectively). Average to above-average rainfall is forecast for April across the region; however, it is unlikely that winter cereals will recover from their poor start to the season in west Algeria and Morocco.

Central and South Asia, and North Korea. In central Asia (southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan), winter wheat and barley are breaking dormancy with close-to-average biomass in a context of low rainfall since November/December. As below-average rainfall is forecast until June across most areas, the availability of irrigation water will be key for the growth of winter cereals. In Afghanistan, winter wheat conditions are close to or above average, except in the north-west (from Jowzjān to Bādghīs) and part of the north (Balkh and Baghlān) in a context of below-average rainfall since November. The planting of spring wheat has started and moisture conditions are forecast to be below average in April and May. Acute food insecurity continues to affect one person out of every two as a result of the economic and social crises. In South Asia, the harvesting of rabi crops (irrigated winter wheat and barley) has started in Pakistan, while in Bangladesh the harvesting of boro rice (which represents about 50% of the total production) should start in April; in both countries, prospects are favourable. In Sri Lanka, the harvesting of main-season maha rice and maize is coming to an end with close-to-average prospects. In North Korea, winter wheat and barley are starting to break dormancy under close-to-average weather conditions.

Latin America and the Caribbean islands. In Central America, the apante cycle (maize and beans) is ready for harvesting, with favourable prospects overall. Similarly, in Cuba and Haiti, minor cycles of rice and maize and potatoes (only in Cuba) are in the harvest stage or about to enter it, with favourable prospects. In Bolivia, Colombia and Peru, harvest prospects are favourable, except for some areas where cropland experienced water deficits in the early stages of the cycle or the areas sown are likely to be smaller than usual. In Colombia, Peru and Ecuador, barely, sorghum and wheat have recently been sown or sowing is ongoing, and progress appears to be normal. However, in Ecuador, heavy rains are reported to have caused damage to crops and livestock. Rainfall conditions in the past month have favoured the normal progression of barely, maize, rice, sorghum (only in Colombia) and wheat in the sowing stage in all countries in the area. In the next few weeks, the normal establishment of crops can be expected, as the rainfall forecast is average to above average across most areas. However, this rainfall forecast could also bring heavy rains, which could have negative consequences for ongoing crop cycles.