Global overview July 2021. 

Southern Africa: In the Southern Africa region, the harvest of the main agricultural season has been completed. Aggregate cereal production in 2021 is estimated at 40.6 million tonnes, 22% above the 5-year average and a new record high for the region (FAO). The favourable production output reflects the good agrometeorological conditions experienced in most parts of the region throughout the 2020/2021 agricultural season. Both of the region’s leading maize suppliers, South Africa and Zambia, are expecting bumper maize harvests (30% and 25% above the 5-year average, respectively). In Zimbabwe, cereal production is expected to see a significant recovery after two consecutive years of weather-reduced outputs. However, conflict in northern Mozambique and drought-driven diminished cereal output in south-western Angola and southern Madagascar are the main drivers of food insecurity in the affected areas in these countries. In southern Madagascar, 1.14 million people are food insecure and the number of people at Catastrophe level (IPC Phase 5) risks doubling to 28,000 by October (RELIEFWEB). Good pastoral conditions throughout the season are expected to support livestock production in most countries, except for north-western parts of Namibia (mainly Kunene) and southern Angola. Conditions are good for winter wheat in the Western Cape of South Africa, and the area planted is close to the 5-year average according to preliminary estimates.

East Africa: July has seen a good start to the main season in the northern part of the region, including Sudan and most of Ethiopia. Abundant rainfall has led to floods in South Sudan and Uganda, and rainfall distribution has been quite irregular throughout the current season, especially in Uganda. Parts of southern Ethiopia, coastal Kenya and southern Somalia are reaching the end of the first crop season with below-average production outlooks, due to irregular rainfall distribution. In coastal Kenya and parts of Somalia, this is the second consecutive season of below-average production. Pastoral areas in eastern Kenya, parts of Somalia, and Ethiopia have also been affected by rainfall deficits and consequent low availability of water and pasture. Consecutive seasons of below-average agricultural production, economic slowdowns, the impact of COVID-19 and a reduced inflow of remittances are increasing the risk of poverty and food insecurity for already vulnerable populations. In South Sudan, the macroeconomic and food security situation remains alarming. According to a recent appeal by WFP and FAO, between April and December 2021, over 7.24 million people across South Sudan are projected to fall into Crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity, including over 100,000 at Catastrophe level (IPC5). Major food security issues and humanitarian concerns continue in the Tigray region, as increasing insecurity in neighbouring Afar is limiting humanitarian access.

West and Central Africa: Thanks to a timely onset of rains in March, biomass conditions of main season maize, to be harvested in August, are good in the southern bi-modal areas. Below-average vegetation conditions persist in the central belt and northern parts of Nigeria and in northern Benin and northern Togo. Rainfall in the Sahelian belt has been average to below average since late June, resulting in a slight deterioration of crop conditions in parts of northern Senegal, southern Mauritania, western Niger, southern Chad and southern Mali. However, there is still time for improvement at this early stage of the season, if positive rains occur in the coming weeks. According to the June Update of the PRESASS 2021 seasonal forecast, average to above-average seasonal rainfall (in June-August 2021) is expected over most of the Sahelian and Sudanian belt, except for the coastal areas of southern Mauritania, Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Guinea and Sierra Leone (WFP). The persisting insecurity and armed conflicts continue to drive massive population movements in the region, particularly affecting access to and operation of markets in the Lake Chad Basin, Liptako-Gourma region, north-western and north-central Nigeria (FEWSNET).

North Africa: At the end of the season for winter cereals in North Africa, Algeria is at the centre of a region that experienced unfavourable production conditions. In Algeria, national yields were predicted in June to be 20%, 30% and 40% below-average for durum wheat, soft wheat and barley (ASAP Special Focus), respectively, while in the north-east of Morocco and central areas of Tunisia, only areas producing around 5% of national cereal production are affected by below-average yield.

Middle East: In the Middle East, output of winter cereals is expected to be poor in the north of Syria and Iraq, in particular Hassakeh and Ninewa, and below average in the north-east and centre-south of Iran, as a result of the dry conditions since last autumn and the heatwave since April. In fact, this season (from 1 October to 20 July) is the warmest, and second or third driest, in the last 30 years for the northern provinces of Syria (Hassakeh, Raqqa), north-western Iraq (Ninewa, Dahuk), and centre-south Iran (Esfahan, Yazd, Fars, Kerman). In contrast, prospects are average to above average for southern Syria, southern Iraq and north-western Iran. In Yemen, weather conditions have been close to average for sorghum and wheat; conflict and economic decline remain the main drivers of the protracted food security crisis affecting the country since 2017.

Central and South Asia: In Central Asia, winter cereal production is expected to be below average in the western half of Uzbekistan (from Kashkadarya to Sirdarya) and in most of Turkmenistan (Lebap, Mary, Ahal). This is as a result of erratic temperatures – low between mid-November and 10 January, and high since late April/early May with record highs in early June and early July – combined with low rainfall since January (with the exception of March) and possibly reduced irrigation water. In Kazakhstan, dry conditions since April have started to impact spring cereals in the main producing regions of the north, reducing prospects for the main output of the country. In Kyrgyzstan (Chuy and Talas), as well as southern Kazakhstan (from Yujno-Kazachstanskaya to Almatinskaya), prospects are also below average for the output of winter cereals. This may be the result of a sudden temperature drop in February and low rainfall since April, compounded by record high temperatures in early June and early July. Only in Tajikistan are prospects for cereals close to average. In Afghanistan, conditions are mixed for winter cereals, with close to average output across all regions except the north-west. The dry conditions prevailing since January (with the exception of March) are likely to reduce water availability for spring and summer crops. In South Asia, conditions are favourable for planting and growth of kharif (summer) crops in Pakistan and Aman rice in Bangladesh. In Sri Lanka, yala season rice and maize are in good condition.

South-East and Eastern Asia: In continental south-east Asia, moisture conditions have been favourable for wet season rice across the region. In central Thailand and Cambodia, after a wet April and average May, June has been drier than average but July rainfall has been average to above average. In north Vietnam, the harvest of dry season rice has been completed with good prospects and planting of main season rice has started. In Indonesia, the harvest of wet season rice has been completed with good prospects and planting of dry season rice is ongoing under favourable conditions. In the Philippines, conditions are favourable for wet season crops. In North Korea, with average to above-average rainfall and temperatures over the last 3 months, weather conditions have been favourable for maize and rice crops.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: The primera season for maize and bean crops is ongoing in Central America. Despite irregular rains – with spells of both above-average and below-average rains since mid-May – overall conditions are favourable and crop development benefited from positive rains early in the season and high soil moisture levels. However, in some parts of north-eastern Nicaragua (Nueva Segovia, Madriz) and southern Honduras (El Paraiso, Olancho, Francisco Morazan), rains received at the beginning of July were too late to reverse crop conditions, which remain below average. Crop conditions in Cuba are favourable overall, supported by abundant rains brought by Tropical Storm Elsa at the beginning of July. Southern Haiti has also benefited from Elsa, while the rest of the country has experienced dry conditions in the last month. However, vegetation conditions remain average.