Southern Africa: As harvest is nearing completion for the main crop season, preliminary estimates from the Climate Hazards Center at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and NASA’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network indicate that the regional 2024 summer cereal harvest will be around 28.2 million tons, 14% lower than the 5-year average and 24% lower than the 2023 harvest (Southern Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook Update). All countries in the region, except for Madagascar and Tanzania, will have below-average staple production in the 2024/25 marketing year (Malawi is expected to be 45% below the 5-year average, Mozambique 41%, Zambia 34% and Zimbabwe 55%, according to the Southern Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook Update). South Africa, one of the region’s leading maize suppliers, is expecting a reduced maize harvest as well (ca 10% below the 5-year average, according to the South Africa Crop Estimates Committee’s forecast). The persistent drought conditions have also worsened rangeland biomass conditions, and limited water availability, mainly in northern Botswana, Namibia, most parts of Zambia and northern Zimbabwe, and, as a result, reduced livestock production is expected in the affected areas. The winter wheat planting is ongoing in the Cape area of South Africa, and a rainfall deficit is affecting the area with no impact yet on vegetation conditions.

East Africa: In May and June, parts of South Sudan and north-west Ethiopia experienced exceptionally high temperatures and low rainfall. Most other areas, in contrast, experienced above-average rainfall. Favourable agroclimatic conditions have led to above-average rangeland conditions beneficial for livestock in large parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Uganda. Rainfed crop conditions in most of Ethiopia, western and central Kenya, Somalia and Uganda have also been generally favourable (e.g. the country-level Joint Research Centre’s pre-operational country-level yield-forecasting model based on Machine Learning for sorghum is 30% above the 5-year average for Somalia). In South Sudan, drought conditions have worsened since the beginning of the season and are also extending into the southern parts of neighbouring Sudan. The ongoing conflict in Sudan continues to disrupt livelihoods and to push the population into displacement. The main crop season in Sudan is expected to start in July but will most likely also be negatively affected by the conflict. According to a recently published report by the IPC, food security conditions in Sudan have rapidly deteriorated, leaving 25.6 million people in acute food insecurity and 14 areas at risk of famine.

North Africa: The winter cereal season was characterised by major drought in western Algeria and in Morocco. Record low yields are forecast for Morocco according to the Joint Research Centre’s pre-operational country-level yield-forecasting model based on Machine Learning, with wheat and barley yields expected to be 42% and 46% below their respective 5-year averages. Central and eastern Algeria and Tunisia have experienced better rainfall conditions since December 2023, leading to close-to-average crop yield expectations.

West and central Africa: Crop conditions are generally favourable in the bimodal southern parts of the region, as crops have received sufficient water for their development. June marks the onset of the main season across the Sahel, and early rainfall has been mixed, with pockets of above-average rainfall but also areas that experienced a rainfall deficit. A delayed start of the season and below-average crop conditions were observed in June in southern and central Burkina Faso, northern Cameroon, southern Chad, western Guinea, south-western Mali and central and northern Nigeria. It is still early in the season to tell whether this will have a negative impact on seasonal production. Close monitoring will be necessary in the coming weeks. The Copernicus Climate Change Service multimodel seasonal rainfall forecast for July–August 2024 indicates average to above-average rainfall in most parts of the region, except for central Cameroon, northern Guinea, southern Mauritania and western Senegal, where drier-than-average conditions are expected. According to the Famine Early Warning System Network (April 2024), the security crisis persists in the Sahel and continues to lead to population movements, particularly in the central Sahel, Liptako-Gourma, and in the Lake Chad basin, where livelihoods, activities linked to markets, trade, transhumance movements and access to basic social services are strongly disrupted. An extension of this security crisis towards coastal countries (Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo and Benin) is increasingly observed.

Middle East: In the Middle East, the harvest of winter cereals finished or almost finished in Iraq and Syria with good prospects, except in the south of Iraq (Babil and Qadissiya), where large areas have not been sown, probably owing to restrictions on irrigation. In Iran, the harvest of winter cereals is under way, also with good prospects across the country except in small areas of the south (Bushehr and Fars), east (Khorasan) and centre north (Qazvin), where crop biomass is below average. In Yemen, crop biomass is above average, suggesting favourable conditions for sorghum in the coastal areas and the central highlands and for wheat sowing in the central highlands and southern uplands. Food insecurity continues to affect 17 million out of 30 million people as a result of the conflict and the poor socioeconomic conditions.

Central and South Asia: in central Asia, the harvest of winter cereals started in June, and prospects are average in Turkmenistan and above average in all other countries (southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan). Conditions are also favourable for early growth of spring wheat and barley in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. In Afghanistan, the harvest of winter cereals finished in June with average to above-average prospects across the country except the north-west (from Jawzjan to northern Hirat). Spring crops (wheat and barley) and summer crops (rice and maize) are now growing under favourable conditions. Acute food insecurity continues to affect one person out of two as a result of the economic and social crises. In South Asia, the harvest of irrigated rabi crops in Pakistan finished with good prospects. Planting of kharif crops (rice, maize, millet) is under way in Pakistan, while conditions for aman rice in Bangladesh are good except in the northeast (Dakha and Sylhet) were two million hectares have been flooded since early June. In Sri Lanka, conditions for second-season yala rice and maize are average to above average.

South-East and eastern Asia: The region is no longer monitored by ASAP analysts. In East Asia, the ASAP team continues to monitor only North Korea, where the biomass of rice and maize is above average. If specifically requested, an ad hoc analysis can be conducted (please contact us by email: JRC-ASAP@ec.europa.eu).

Latin America and the Caribbean islands: In Bolivia, sorghum harvest has unfavourable prospects due to water deficits accumulated throughout the cycle over large areas of cropland, mainly in Santa Cruz, where 75% of national grain production originates. Nearly half of the total cropland area of Santa Cruz presented poor vegetation conditions as of 20 June. In Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Haiti and Peru, some crop cycles are in the harvest stage or about to be harvested (rice in Colombia and Cuba, maize and rice in Ecuador and Peru). In all these countries, the harvest prospects are favourable given the average to above-average vegetation conditions in most cropland areas. In these same countries, normal progress of crops in the sowing and vegetation stages (main cycles of maize and rice in Colombia, rice (main), maize and sweet potato in Cuba, minor cycles of maize and rice in Ecuador, and potato in Peru) can be expected, as rainfall in the last month has been average in most croplands. The primera cycles (maize and beans) in Central America have entered or are about to enter the vegetation stage. Rainfall deficits have accumulated in large cropping areas of Guatemala and Honduras since the start of the cycles, causing delays in the establishment of the primera cycles in these countries. In the areas where the primera cycles are delayed, rainfall is forecast to be above normal for the period between June and August. This might bring some improvement for crops in these areas (Copernicus Climate Change Service multimodel).