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Madagascar: Acute Malnutrition Situation for May - September 2026 and Projections for October 2026 - January 2027 and February - April 2027

  • Publication | 2026

In the analysed areas of the Grand South and Grand South-East, the nutritional situation remains fragile. Between May 2026 and April 2027, approximately 502,000 children under the age of five are suffering or likely to suffer acute malnutrition. Among them, an estimated 78,000 children are expected to suffer Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM). During the same period, 20,834 pregnant or breastfeeding women (PBW) are expected to suffer acute malnutrition.

Between May and September 2026, the situation will improve compared to the previous period, supported by recent harvests, some local food availability, and ongoing nutrition and health interventions. However, this easing remains limited: the majority of districts are classified in IPC AMN Phase 2 (Alert), while Betroka is the main hotspot of severity in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious). 

In the first projection period (October 2026–January 2027), the situation is expected to progressively deteriorate in several districts in the Grand South. Between February and April 2027, the situation will likely remain concerning, with an increased concentration of districts in IPC AMN Phase 2 and 3, driven by the peak of the lean season, high prices, rainfall deficits in the south, isolation in the southeast, and constraints in accessing health, nutrition, and WASH services.

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