A sequence of drought events has been affecting East Africa and the Middle East/Central Asia since 2021. Warmer temperatures and heatwaves compounded with precipitation deficits and contributed to shape these climate extremes.

Large‑scale climate drivers, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, have contributed to reinforce precipitation deficits and enhance atmospheric evaporative demand in the most severe drought episodes observed in East Africa (2021‑2022, 2025) and the Middle East/Central Asia region (2021‑2022, 2025). Rising temperatures due to anthropogenic climate change, evident in the time series of temperature anomalies, contribute to increase atmospheric water demand and exacerbate soil moisture depletion across both regions.

In East Africa, the drought is gripping Somalia, south‑eastern Ethiopia and eastern Kenya, leading to historic low soil moisture levels and severe vegetation stress.

In the Middle East/Central Asia region, persistent dry conditions are observed in northern Iran, Turan Depression, Afghanistan and parts of Central Asia, with runoff and river discharge anomalies remaining negative.

Agricultural impacts of the drought events are here evaluated by using FAOSTAT data from 2016 – 2024. The production of sorghum decreased in Kenya, Ethiopia and especially in Somalia (~40 %) from 2016-2020 to 2021-2024. Maize production remained stable in Somalia and Kenya and even increased in Ethiopia and Tanzania. In Central Asia, wheat production declined only in Turkmenistan, while it remained stable in Afghanistan and even increased in Iran, Uzbekistan, Pakistan.

These changes are clearly influenced by irrigation. In some cases, e.g. in Iran, these changes are associated with unsustainable water resource management and overexploitation.
The analysis of hydrological impacts shows prolonged negative runoff anomalies in the Ethiopian Highlands, the Upper Nile basin and the Middle East, reducing water availability for irrigation and domestic use.

The humanitarian situation in East Africa is worsening, with 4.6 million people affected, over 135 000 displaced in Somalia, and acute malnutrition threatening ~2 million children.
Seasonal forecasts from the multi‑system ensemble predict only marginally wetter conditions for southern Somalia and south‑eastern Kenya, with high uncertainty and limited expected relief before the next rainy season.

Funding shortfalls compound the crisis: by early 2026 only €370 million of the €1.4 billion required for humanitarian response had been secured, jeopardising life‑saving assistance.