The World Bank Group’s fertilizer price index rose more than 12 percent in 2026Q1 (q/q), marking its sixth increase in seven quarters. By April 2026, the index had reached its highest level since October 2022, driven mainly by export disruptions related to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Urea prices recorded the largest gains, while increases in other fertilizers were more moderate. Despite the recent surge, price increases remain well below the spikes seen in 2021 and 2022, when fertilizer prices jumped by more than 100 percent and 55 percent, respectively, amid supply disruptions in Russia and Belarus—two of the world’s key fertilizer suppliers. The more subdued response this time reflects three factors: (i) growers in the Northern Hemisphere had already secured much of their fertilizer supply; (ii) natural gas prices (the main production cost for nitrogen-based fertilizers) rose less sharply than after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; and (iii) trade flows from the Middle East are increasingly being rerouted through land corridors, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The fertilizer price index is projected to rise by more than 30 percent in 2026, supported by higher input costs—particularly for nitrogen- and phosphate-based fertilizers—and resilient global demand. Prices are expected to ease in 2027 as exports recover and new supply comes online. However, risks remain tilted to the upside if elevated energy prices persist and shipping and production disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz continue beyond 2026Q3.